Budget 2026: what to expect on 28 October after conference season

The Budget is on Wednesday 28 October 2026. Labour is in government, so its conference in Liverpool tells you most about what the Chancellor will do. The Conservative conference a week later in Birmingham tells you what he is up against: a fight over who can grow the economy, and how. Labour's answer is public investment, devolution and a state that builds. The Conservatives' answer is tax cuts, deregulation and a smaller state. Charities barely featured in either.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Chancellor John Healey have been in post since 20 July (PoliticsHome). Healey confirmed the date in a letter to the Treasury Committee published on 31 July, and the Office for Budget Responsibility publishes its Economic and fiscal outlook the same day.

What Labour conference 2026 told us about the Budget

Burnham's leader's speech on 29 September carried six headline announcements: a National Care Service with free personal care, public control of water, new council powers over housing, a "GB Grid" for energy, a fresh process on UK-EU relations around a summit later this year, and a national commission on electoral reform. The care service is promised for the next Parliament and paid for by reforming the pensions triple lock from April 2030. The one near-term cash measure was already in train: VAT on domestic electricity was cut to zero for six months from 1 October, though Full Fact notes Northern Ireland stays at 5%.

These are commitments for 2030 and beyond. They commit no Budget cash this year.

Healey's conference speech: fiscal rules first

The Chancellor's speech on 28 September was the sharper guide. Fiscal discipline, he said, "underwrites every promise this Government makes", and "the Prime Minister and I are united in meeting the fiscal rules." He also said: "We have to bake a bigger cake, and make sure that it's fairly shared." On welfare he told delegates "it is simply not progressive to allow a bigger and bigger benefits bill", with detail held back for Alan Milburn's review (Left Foot Forward, IFA Magazine).

The spending announcements were small and targeted: a Local Apprenticeships Service backed by £100 million and run through mayors, a restored Union Learning Fund with an AI focus, and £6 billion of submarine contracts for British shipyards. We searched the full text for "charity", "voluntary" and "civil society". None appears.

The Irish Times reported that Healey is drawing up a package of tax rises and spending cuts, with higher borrowing costs since the spring, driven by the US-Iran war, as the chief cause. A Reuters factbox on 7 October listed the options under consideration: lowering the threshold of the high value council tax surcharge (the "mansion tax" due in April 2028) from £2 million to £1.5 million, a possible higher bank levy, an energy subsidy costing over £1 billion for lower-income households, holding fuel duty, and giving mayors a 20% share of growth in local business taxes. All of this is reporting, not Treasury policy, and the Treasury does not comment on speculation.

Devolution: the part of Budget 2026 that reaches charities

The clearest steer came in Healey's growth speech on 7 September. He promised a devolution roadmap: councils keeping a bigger share of business rates, and central grants for mayoral strategic authorities replaced with a share of local income tax from 2028. The Treasury's own Budget announcement promises to move "power and money out of Westminster, and into every postcode around Britain." Press reports also suggest a higher small business rates relief threshold; the £17,096 figure doing the rounds is simply the current £12,000 uprated for inflation, and the Treasury told Business Matters it does not comment on speculation.

This matters because charity income increasingly comes from local commissioners. If more money and discretion move to councils and mayors, a Budget response that only reads across to Whitehall misses where your funding decisions will be made.

The Conservative conference: a fight over growth

Birmingham was built around one claim: that Labour cannot grow the economy and the Conservatives can. Healey's growth plan is public money, devolved to mayors, with a state that builds grids, homes and care. The Conservative reply is that growth comes from business, and the state should get out of the way. Badenoch's The Right Way, a 95-page statement of principles, says the state should tax less, spend less, borrow less and regulate less. Its one concession to 2022 is that "not every tax cut pays for itself."

The party also has a new shadow chancellor. Andrew Griffith replaced Sir Mel Stride on 31 August (Public Finance), and his speech on 5 October set out "the biggest deregulation project in a generation" under five headings: lower, simpler and fairer taxes, cheaper energy, getting people into work, cutting red tape and backing business. The specific pledges were to scrap stamp duty entirely on primary homes, scrap what he called "Labour's family homes tax" (the mansion tax), scrap the packaging tax, cut business rates for "a quarter of a million pubs, shops and high street" businesses, and, "like Nigel Lawson", to "scrap at least one tax every Budget". Tax cuts would be bound by a "Golden Economic Rule" under which at least half of identified savings go to deficit reduction (PA via AOL). The savings named were further cuts to overseas aid, Net Zero subsidies and government advertising.

Kemi Badenoch's leader's speech on 7 October added the headline tax offer: no inheritance tax on the family home, plus an additional £1 million that couples could pass on tax free, which she said would more than halve the number of families paying. Her summary line was "no stamp duty when you buy your home, no mansion tax when you live in your home, and no inheritance tax on your home when you pass it to your children or grandchildren." She also pledged to halve employer National Insurance for workers aged 21 to 24, from 15% to 7.5%, at an estimated £2.3 billion a year, to remove the £100,000 childcare cliff edge, to spend £10 billion on a "Britannia Shield" missile defence, and to build 50,000 prison places. She ruled out any deal with Nigel Farage.

Neither speech named charities. Three of the lines still land on them:

• Inheritance tax and legacies. Legacy income depends on the inheritance tax rules. A Conservative exemption for family homes, and the government's reported move on the mansion tax, both change the arithmetic for bequests. The Civil Society Group has already asked the Chancellor to weigh "the inevitable impact on charitable income" of any inheritance tax change.
• Employer National Insurance. Halving the rate for under-25s would reach every charity that employs young people. It also confirms that the 2025 rise, which charities fought and lost, is now the baseline both parties argue from.
• Welfare. Healey called a growing benefits bill "not progressive". Shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately's September plan would cut Universal Credit by a third after six months for claimants without a contribution record and move them to a prepaid "back to work" card (Spectator). Charities working with claimants should expect demand to rise whichever party is in office.

The only charity-specific moment we found in Birmingham was a fringe. Former civil society minister Stuart Andrew told a Bright Blue panel on 5 October that "too often it feels to me that charities are invited around the table by government when it suits the government and not at early stages." No policy came with it.

Budget 2026 charities: the asks that fit the mood

The Civil Society Group, more than 80 organisations including NCVO and the Charity Finance Group, submitted its Budget asks on 14 September: full cost recovery in grants and contracts, multi-year settlements with inflationary uplifts, and protection for the tax incentives behind legacy giving.

Three pressure points sit under those asks.

Employer National Insurance. For 2026 to 2027 the rate is 15% above a £5,000 secondary threshold, with the Employment Allowance at £10,500. NCVO and ACEVO estimated the annual cost to charities at £1.4 billion when the rise was announced, and the sector was not exempted.

Gift Aid and legacies. Gift Aid lets a charity claim back 25p on every £1 donated. Any change to inheritance tax, from either party, reaches charities through legacy income.

Business rates. Charities already receive mandatory relief of up to 80% on premises they use, with councils able to top up to 100%. A higher small business threshold or the Conservatives' high street cut would matter mainly to trading subsidiaries.

The Chancellor has staked his first Budget on the fiscal rules. The opposition wants to pay for tax cuts with spending cuts. In that contest, asks that cost the Treasury little and fix how government pays charities, such as full cost recovery and multi-year terms, stand a better chance than a new relief. Both parties talked about growth and local delivery. Put your ask in those terms.

What the other parties said at conference

None of this will be in the Budget, but it shows where the smaller parties are pulling.

• Reform UK (NEC Birmingham, 4 to 5 September): a higher personal allowance and a consultation on tax ideas including business rates reform and brownfield incentives, per the Chartered Institute of Taxation.
• Liberal Democrats (Brighton, 19 to 22 September): Ed Davey pledged to raise the personal allowance to £15,000 and the higher rate threshold to £56,000, costed at £17 billion in year five and funded, the party says, by closer economic ties with the EU.
• Greens (Brighton, 2 to 4 October): Zack Polanski announced an emergency brake on rents and a Fair Rents Guarantee, alongside water nationalisation and a youth jobs guarantee.
• Plaid Cymru (Llandudno, 2 to 5 October): now leading a minority Welsh Government, First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth said he had written to the Prime Minister with "A New Deal for Wales" and called on him to reverse planned real-terms cuts to Wales's budget. Welsh charities should watch the Budget's Welsh settlement as closely as the UK measures.

The SNP meets in Aberdeen on 15 to 17 October (LBC conference dates), after the Commons returns and before the Budget.

What to do now: a timeline to Budget day

The Treasury's representations portal closed at 23:59 on 9 September. If you missed it, you have lost the formal channel, not the argument.

How to make a Budget representation after the deadline

Write a single page to the Chancellor's office and the relevant Treasury minister, copied to your MP. State the ask, its cost, who benefits and how it can be delivered. The Treasury asks representations to explain policy rationale, costs, benefits and deliverability, so lead with those. Our guide to writing a policy briefing covers the format.

How to engage MPs and committees

MPs back from recess on 12 October want something local to say. Give them a number: how many jobs, how many beneficiaries, what the National Insurance bill is. The Treasury Committee's Budget 2026 inquiry is live, so a short written submission now will be read before the Chancellor appears after Budget day.

How to prepare a Budget-day response

Draft before the speech. Decide your headline for each outcome, name a spokesperson and have your numbers ready. The evidence you gather now will also serve any later consultation response.

Tracking Parliament between now and the Budget

Sixteen days between the Commons returning and the Budget leave no time to trawl. You need a short list of the bills, debates, written questions and committee sessions that touch your two asks, and when they fall. Frontbench matches Parliament's output to your organisation's policy areas so you see the relevant item the day it appears. How it works explains the matching, and our piece on tracking a bill shows what to watch once legislation follows the Budget.

FAQ

What did Labour announce at conference 2026? Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced a National Care Service with free personal care in the next Parliament, public control of water, new council housing powers, a GB Grid, a new process on UK-EU relations and a commission on electoral reform. The care service is funded by reforming the pensions triple lock from April 2030.

What did the Conservatives announce at conference 2026? A growth plan built on tax cuts and deregulation: no inheritance tax on the family home plus an extra £1 million for couples, no stamp duty on primary homes, scrapping the mansion tax, halving employer National Insurance for 21 to 24 year olds, cutting business rates for high street businesses, and a rule that at least half of any savings go to deficit reduction. Neither Kemi Badenoch nor shadow chancellor Andrew Griffith mentioned charities.

Does Labour conference tell us what will be in the Budget? Partly. Labour is in government, so its priorities carry weight, but most of its conference commitments are for 2030 or the next Parliament. The Chancellor's own message was that the Budget will meet the fiscal rules.

When is the Budget in 2026? Wednesday 28 October 2026, confirmed by the Chancellor in a letter to the Treasury Committee published on 31 July. The OBR forecast is published the same day.

Will the Budget raise taxes? Nothing is confirmed. The Irish Times and Reuters report that a package of tax rises and spending cuts is being prepared, with a lower mansion tax threshold among the options. The Treasury does not comment on speculation.

Can charities still submit Budget representations? The Treasury portal closed on 9 September. You can still write directly to the Chancellor, Treasury ministers and your MP, and submit written evidence to the Treasury Committee's Budget 2026 inquiry.

What does the Budget mean for charities? Nothing charity-specific has been announced by either main party. Watch the devolution roadmap, which affects local funding, employer National Insurance, and any change to inheritance tax, which reaches charities through legacy income.

Facts checked against the sources linked above on 9 October 2026. Corrections welcome.